Queen Mother Champion Chase
The Queen Mother Champion Chase is the highlight race of the second day at the Cheltenham Festival. The race is a Grade 1 chase for horses five years and over. It is run over an approximate distance of 2 miles and there are a total of 12 fences to be jumped. It is regarded by many as the leading minimum-distance chase event of the season.
The Champion Chase always attracts the best speed chasers around as can be seen by looking at the previous winners. Both Moscow Flyer and Master Minded have won the race twice in the last ten renewals, with the latter achieving back-to-back victories (2008/2009). Since Master Minded took glory in 2009 the Champion Chase winner has come from Ireland. Both top class performers, Big Zeb took glory in 2010 while last year’s Champion Chaser was Sizing Europe. The race historically favours horses who have a good record at Festival in previous years.
Picking Out The 2012 Champion Chaser
At first glance picking the winner for this year’s Champion Chase looks like being one of the easier assignments of the festival. The market is headed by last year’s 1-2 Sizing Europe and Big Zeb. Both of them have secured Grade 1 glory already this season and they tick the boxes for the profile of a winner.
A deeper look in to the stats shows several interesting trends. I’ve managed to pick out three stats that stand out to me. Firstly, 20 of the last 27 winners have at least been placed at the festival before. A little over 74%. Secondly, 13 out of the last 19 winners were previously successful at the festival. That’s over 68%. Thirdly, 10 of the last 13 winners started the race at 5/1 or lower. That’s just under 77%. Now for those that haven’t figured out where I’m coming from here, the stats tell me that the winner will come from the head of the market and will have done well at the festival in previous years.
Looking for horses that fit that profile outside of the top two currently produces only one in the form of Finian’s Rainbow. Runner up to Captain Chris in last year’s Arkle, the Nicky Henderson trained horse has been popular since taking Grade 2 glory in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton. I do, however, have my reservations about Cheltenham being a track he enjoys. Captain Chris powered past him in last year’s Arkle, a race of the same trip as the Champion Chase. He did finish very strongly over the 2 mile trip at Kempton though and he may find the trip easier to manage this time.
Outside of the top three we find ourselves with a selection of horses currently at double-digit odds. Al Ferof showed last year that he enjoys the stamina testing nature of Cheltenham when finishing powerfully to win the Supreme Novices Hurdle. It’s still not clear whether he will participate in the Arkle or the Champion Chase though. Peddlers Cross is next in the market but I suspect he will run in the Arkle Trophy. That leaves us with Wishfull Thinking and Kauto Stone next in the market. Wishfull Thinking has been disappointing this season before putting in a much improve display at Kempton. If he improves further then he stands as a threat. For me he has too much to improve though. Kauto Stone strikes me as a type that has a lot more to come. He doesn’t have Cheltenham experience but I can see him enjoying the course. He was eight lengths behind Sizing Europe in his last race though, which leaves him with a big enough gap to try and close.
Europe Sizes Up His Rivals In 2011
A look back at the 2011 Champion Chase where a near flawless performance from Sizing Europe saw him secure victory from last year’s winner Big Zeb. Jockey Andrew Lynch had Sizing at the front for the large part of the race and he traveled strongly the whole way round. His jumping was precise and he kicked clear after the last fence looking like he had plenty more left in the tank. With plenty of talent in the field that day it’s no surprise to see Sizing Europe favourite for this year’s Champion Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.
